Table 3

Mendelian randomisation (MR) estimates of effect of vitamin D on COVID-19 outcomes

MR method	COVID versus population		Hospitalised COVID versus population		Severe respiratory COVID versus population		COVID positive versus COVID negative		Hospitalised COVID versus non-hospitalised COVID
MR method	OR	95% CI	OR	95% CI	OR	95% CI	OR	95% CI	OR	95% CI
Instrument A
IVW	1.04	0.92 to 1.18	1.05	0.84 to 1.31	0.96	0.64 to 1.43	1.15	0.99 to 1.35	1.44	0.75 to 2.78
MR-Egger intercept test	P=0.57		P=0.19		P=0.14		P=0.88		P=0.14
Instrument B
IVW	1.04	0.92 to 1.18	1.15	0.92 to 1.44	1.01	0.71 to 1.43	1.15	0.98 to 1.34	1.42	0.86 to 2.35
MR-Egger intercept test	P=0.62		P=0.15		P=0.06		P=0.61		P=0.14
Instrument C
IVW	1.02	0.90 to 1.15	1.12	0.92 to 1.37	1.05	0.82 to 1.34	1.05	0.92 to 1.20	1.23	0.85 to 1.77
MR-Egger intercept test	P=0.88		P=0.85		P=0.23		P=0.12		P=0.14
Instrument of risk of vitamin D deficiency
IVW	1.00	0.99 to 1.01	1.00	0.98 to 1.02	1.02	0.99 to 1.05	0.99	0.97 to 1.00	0.97	0.90 to 1.05
MR-Egger intercept test	P=0.95		P=0.61		P=0.92		P=0.46		P=0.21
Instrument of risk of vitamin D insufficiency
IVW	1.00	0.99 to 1.01	1.00	0.98 to 1.02	1.06	1.00 to 1.05	0.99	0.98 to 1.00	0.97	0.90 to 1.05
MR-Egger intercept test	P=0.87		P=0.64		P=0.76		P=0.59		P=0.22

OR representing change in risk of outcome per SD increase in log-transformed serum vitamin D (instruments A, B and C) or difference in risk of outcome for individuals at risk of vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency versus individuals with sufficient vitamin D.
IVW, inverse variance weighted.