Table 2

Parameterisation of the univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses undertaken

Parameter for univariate sensitivity analysesBase-case estimate*Assumption and/or (reference)Range or measure of variation evaluated
% Reduction in all-cause mortality7%A meta-analysis of RCTs;
RR: 0.93; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.989
1%–10%
The risk reduction of fractures (hip and non-hip)16% (hip)10 12
20% (non-hip, less severe fractures)12
A meta-analysis of RCTs; for vitamin D plus calcium, RR, 0.84 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.97) for hip fracture.10
A meta-analysis of RCTs; for vitamin D dose >400 IU/day, RR was 0.82 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.97) for hip fractures, and RR: 0.80 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.89) for non-vertebral fractures.12
1%–150% (of the base-case estimates)
Discount rate for costs and benefits4%80%–6%
Serum 25(OH)D measurement cost€21.50Assumed to be greater than the PPP equivalent of £17 per test2350% increase in the base-case estimate
Invasive cancer end-of-life care cost€64871850% increase in the base-case estimate
Average annual discounted cost of serum 25(OH)D measurement, GP visit, plus vitamin D acquisition cost†€120.59
(non-discounted, €129.44)
Based on the average cost over a 5-year period (with/without discounting)50% increase in the base-case cost of serum 25(OH)D measurement, and the cost of GP visit, respectively
% Reduction in all-cause mortality7%94.9%
(30% reduction from base-case)
The risk reduction of fractures (hip and non-hip)16% (hip)
20% (non-hip)
10 1211% (hip)
14% (non-hip)
(30% reduction from base-case)
Serum 25(OH)D measurement cost€21.50Assumed to be greater than the PPP equivalent of £17 per test2330% increase in the base-case estimate
Invasive cancer end-of-life care cost€64871830% increase in the base-case estimate
Average annual discounted cost of serum 25(OH)D measurement, #GP visit, plus vitamin D acquisition cost€120.59
(non-discounted, €129.44)
Based on the average cost over a 5-year period (with/without discounting)30% increase in the base-case cost of serum 25(OH)D measurement, and the cost of GP visit, respectively
  • *Cost of a GP visit derived from data from Primary Care Reimbursement Service (PCRS) Statistical Analysis of Claims and Payments (2016).24

  • †All costs are 2020 costs, with inflation of costs to €(2020) values26 where required.

  • PPP, purchasing power parity; RCTs, randomised controlled trials.