Table 4

Estimated impact of modelled scenarios on cumulative coronary heart disease, stroke and cardiovascular disease mortality, stratified by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), under a No Deal Brexit, 2021 to 2030. Results from sensitivity analysis

ScenarioCoronary heart diseaseStrokeCardiovascular disease
Scenario 1
 First IMD quintile−390 (−580 to –260)−930 (−1350 to –610)−1330 (−1920 to –870)
 Second IMD quintile−490 (−710 to –330)−1150 (−1650 to –740)−1640 (−2360 to –1070)
 Third IMD quintile−550 (−810 to –370)−970 (−1430 to –620)−1520 (−2240 to –980)
 Fourth IMD quintile−460 (−690 to –290)−850 (−1270 to –490)−1310 (−1960 to –780)
 Fifth IMD quintile−430 (−650 to –250)−670 (−1060 to –340)−1100 (−1710 to –580)
Total−2330(−3430 to –1500)−4570(–6760 to2780)−6900(–10 190 to4290)
Scenario 2
 First IMD quintile220 (–10 to 580)700 (50 to 1710)920 (40 to 2280)
 Second IMD quintile260 (–30 to 680)940 (80 to 2290)1200 (60 to 2970)
 Third IMD quintile330 (–10 to 850)830 (110 to 1980)1160 (110 to 2830)
 Fourth IMD quintile610 (170 to 1230)1340 (420 to 2750)1950 (590 to 3980)
 Fifth IMD quintile710 (240 to 1360)1360 (490 to 2660)2070 (730 to 4020)
Total2130(360 to4710)5160(1160 to11 380)7300(1520 to16 080)
  • The fifth IMD quintile is the most deprived