Estimated impact of modelled scenarios on cumulative coronary heart disease, stroke and cardiovascular disease mortality, stratified by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), under a No Deal Brexit, 2021 to 2030. Results from sensitivity analysis
| Scenario | Coronary heart disease | Stroke | Cardiovascular disease |
| Scenario 1 | |||
| First IMD quintile | −390 (−580 to –260) | −930 (−1350 to –610) | −1330 (−1920 to –870) |
| Second IMD quintile | −490 (−710 to –330) | −1150 (−1650 to –740) | −1640 (−2360 to –1070) |
| Third IMD quintile | −550 (−810 to –370) | −970 (−1430 to –620) | −1520 (−2240 to –980) |
| Fourth IMD quintile | −460 (−690 to –290) | −850 (−1270 to –490) | −1310 (−1960 to –780) |
| Fifth IMD quintile | −430 (−650 to –250) | −670 (−1060 to –340) | −1100 (−1710 to –580) |
| Total | −2330 (−3430 to –1500) | −4570 (–6760 to –2780) | −6900 (–10 190 to –4290) |
| Scenario 2 | |||
| First IMD quintile | 220 (–10 to 580) | 700 (50 to 1710) | 920 (40 to 2280) |
| Second IMD quintile | 260 (–30 to 680) | 940 (80 to 2290) | 1200 (60 to 2970) |
| Third IMD quintile | 330 (–10 to 850) | 830 (110 to 1980) | 1160 (110 to 2830) |
| Fourth IMD quintile | 610 (170 to 1230) | 1340 (420 to 2750) | 1950 (590 to 3980) |
| Fifth IMD quintile | 710 (240 to 1360) | 1360 (490 to 2660) | 2070 (730 to 4020) |
| Total | 2130 (360 to 4710) | 5160 (1160 to 11 380) | 7300 (1520 to 16 080) |
The fifth IMD quintile is the most deprived